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Latest NFL News
Football betting: A look at college football's opening week
2010-08-25
While most of college football's elite squads are involved in projected mismatches to begin the season, there are a few contests that should be quite competitive. The marquee attraction will be on Labor Day night in Landover, Maryland when 5th-ranked Boise State will square off against 6th-ranked Virginia Tech. The Broncos have gone undefeated in each of the last two regular seasons but haven't had to face a team like the Hokies during the stretch.
While Virginia Tech's fans won't have to travel far to watch the matchup, Boise State is a 2.5-point favorite in the battle. Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore fired 39 TD passes in 2009 to lead the offense. The Hokies counter with running back Ryan Williams. He burst on the scene to rush for 1,655 yards as a freshman in 2009. Another top 25 battle will highlight the schedule on the first evening of the season on Thursday, September 2nd.
The 15th-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers will head west for a matchup against the 24th-ranked Utah Utes in Salt Lake City. The home team is a 3.5-point choice in the game. While dynamic running back Dion Lewis (1,799 yards in 2009) is back for the Panthers, the club will have to break in a raw quarterback to replace Bill Stull. Utah would like to make a statement against a Big East squad before moving over to the Pac-10 in 2011.
The football betting will really get cranked up two days later in the first Saturday of the year. There will be 29 booked games on Saturday, September 4th. A couple of top 25 contests will top the slate. In Atlanta, the 16th-ranked LSU Tigers will line up against the 18th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in an SEC-ACC battle. Both teams are expected to have two of the better defenses in the country. Each squad has some question marks on offense heading into the opener. The Tigers are a narrow 1.5-point favorite in a game that should draw plenty of football betting interest.
At Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, 7th-ranked TCU will make the short trip from Fort Worth to take on the 22nd-ranked Oregon State Beavers. The Horned Frogs had a perfect regular season in 2009 before falling to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Beavers are a 13.5-point underdog in the opener. The club will have to go with an untested quarterback after the graduation of quarterback Sean Canfield. The top 4 teams in the initial top 25 poll of the season are overwhelming favorites in the first week of the season.
Top-ranked Alabama will begin its national title defense at home against the San Jose State Spartans. As a 39.5-point favorite, Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram who’s line at www.sportsbook.com has him listed as the early favorite to repeat as Heisman winner at +350, and his teammates will likely have this game wrapped up by halftime. On the opening Thursday, the 2nd-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Marshall Thundering Herd. Behind star quarterback Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State is a 29-point favorite in the contest.
With the Buckeyes possibly looking ahead to a matchup on September 11th against 13th-ranked Miami-Florida, Marshall could pull out a cover in the second half. On Saturday, the 3rd-ranked Florida Gators will move on from the Tim Tebow era in Gainesville against the Miami-Ohio Redhawks. Against a team that won just a single game in 2009, Florida has the right opponent to break in new starting quarterback John Brantley. The Gators are a 34.5-point favorite in the mismatch.
After coming up short in last year's BCS title game, the Texas Longhorns will open the 2010 campaign at Reliant Stadium in Houston against the Rice Owls. The former Southwest Conference rivals are clearly on different ends of the college football landscape. in 40 meetings since 1966, Rice has been able to post just a single win against Texas. Sophomore quarterback Garrett Gilbert will try to continue the recent signal-caller success (Vince Young and Colt McCoy) for the Longhorns. Texas is a 28.5-point favorite against the overmatched Owls.
There are a couple of other top 10 mismatches on the opening Saturday involving a pair of Big 12 schools. 8th-ranked Oklahoma is a 32-point choice over Utah State in Norman while the 9th-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers are expected to cruise in Lincoln as a 35.5-point favorite over a Western Kentucky squad that has lost 20 consecutive games.
NFL: Looking Ahead at NFL Schedule
2010-04-23
The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the season schedule this past week. As always, each fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like when it’s all said and done come January. Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially in the NFL, and for that reason, sites like Sportsbook.com offer up wagering opportunities that bettors can take advantage of for the upcoming season as early as now. After reading our analysis of the 2010 schedule, head over to the FOOTBALL ODDS page for a look at the FUTURES props to see if you can’t take advantage of some price mistakes.
Thursday feels different
The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.
The NFL started sneaking in late season Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing. Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.
Sunday Night Adventures
Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly public action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, there is no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.
Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.
The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making a trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.
Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.
Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws
A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more fan friendly.
Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.
This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.
There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.
Changes in the schedule
Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.
In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).
The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with a Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.
A few scheduling observations………….
No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.
San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.
Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.
Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.
Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.
Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.
Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.
The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.
Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.
Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.
The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.
The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.
Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.
The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.
NFL: NFL Thursday Night Football
2009-11-13
Tonight is the first of six consecutive Thursday games on the NFL Network package. These games have tended to be mediocre matchups historically, as the league tries not to anger the other networks that help keep the coffers nicely stocked with cash. This week’s game pits the Chicago Bears at the San Francisco 49ers. The hosts are field goal favorites, with a total of 43.5 at Sportsbook.com. Not surprisingly, bettors are backing the favorites and OVER on the total.
The Setup
The first Thursday night game of the NFL season pits two fringe playoff contenders in the NFC against one another. San Francisco (3-5, 5-2-1 ATS) is playing at home and as the small favorite, which could prove important, since favorites are 24-6 ATS on Thursday games going back five seasons. It’s also notable since favorites are on a run of 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between these teams, each time the host club in the role of the chalk. The 49ers are on a four-game losing skid, but have won five of last seven at home. Chicago (4-4 SU&ATS) is on a 25-11 ATS run on the road in November, but just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, being outscored by 10.5 points per game while turning the ball over 13 times. The Bears are not playing well, having lost three of their last four tries.
Why Watch
Mike Singletary is a legend in Chicago, for his fiery play and intensity (those bulging eyes shots are classic) and ended up the Hall of Fame. Now he faces his old team as the coach.
Though it was before Singletary was head coach, a bit of bad blood exists between these teams’ front offices. In 2006, the Bears brought tampering charges against the 49ers for pursuing linebacker Lance Briggs, who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the Bears. The NFL ruled against San Fran, and they were docked a fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft.
This contest features two of the better tight ends on the NFC with Vernon Davis and Greg Olson, the latter coming off three touchdown game.
Which quarterback will throw more game-changing interceptions to drive sport bettor insane? Alex Smith has five picks in basically 2.5 games and Jay Cutler has just what you get at Dunkin Donuts, a dozen.
Why Wager
Do you really care about the NBA yet? Yeah, didn’t think so. The Bears are 6-0 ATS having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. San Francisco is 8-16 ATS after allowing 28 or more points.
Some might be of the opinion Chicago is more done than the last of the leaves that were just raked up and the Bears are 1-8 ATS after gaining six or more yards play in their previous game. Besides, the Niners are 5-2-1 ATS after an L.
The Line
Sportsbook.com has 49ers by 3 with total of 43.5.
What Happens
The aforementioned Mr. Briggs steps his play up and tries to compensate for crummy secondary by playing the run like a stud and blitzes QB Smith into mistakes. Defensive lineman Tommie Harris finally decides to play football and not look like the second coming of Alonzo Spellman. The Chicago wide receivers are the worst in the NFL and most have no clue how to run deep routes. Throw short and hope they make a move to use exceptional speed.
Of course for every action there is a reaction and San Francisco would be making a huge mistake not keeping Smith in the shotgun as much as possible. He’s obviously more comfortable in it from his college days and reads the field better. Remember the strength of the offense was supposed to be the line, ask Frank Gore what he thinks about that notion with all his one and two yard gains. Block somebody. Excuse the 49ers secondary if they smile a lot facing the Bears wideouts, put any kind of pressure on Cutler and they are covered like blanket.
The Outcome
The StatFox Forecaster picks San Francisco to cover in a 23-19 decision, meaning the chalk players would be happy at Sportsbook.com tonight, but the OVER bettors might give it back.
NFLPS: Tennessee vs. Buffalo, Hall-of-fame Game (8:00 PM ET, NBC)
2009-08-07
It’s only an exhibition NFL contest, but who cares, football is back on TV, which means the regular season is fast approaching. More importantly, wagering season is back underway. Buffalo and Tennessee will play in the annual Hall of Fame game from Canton, OH. The Titans, coming off a 13-win season are the favorite. Get the latest info on this preseason kickoff contest on the LIVE ODDS & GAME MATCHUP pages.
During the day, a six-man class will be enshrined, with wide receiver Bob Hayes, guard Randall McDaniel, defensive end Bruce Smith, linebacker Derrick Thomas, Buffalo Bills owner Ralph Wilson, and defensive back Rod Woodson so honored. Later on NBC starting at 8 Eastern, the Bills and Titans will commence to cracking shoulder pads and trading helmet paint.
Buffalo made a splashy move in signing flamboyant wide receiver Terrell Owens. The Bills want to break streak of three consecutive 7-9 seasons (26-21-1 ATS) and try to make leap to at least be wild card team. Owens should fit nicely with Lee Evans on the other side and make Buffalo difficult to stop in the red zone, with four receiver sets that include Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish.
Quarterback Trent Edwards should see limited minutes at best, with backups Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gibran Hamdan seeing the bulk of the work.
Coach Dick Jauron is 5-7 and 7-5 ATS in the preseason in Buffalo and will coach squad that is 6-0 ATS in first exhibition game since 2003. With the Bills a 2.5-point underdog at Sportsbook.com, Jauron is 7-0 against the oddsmakers as underdog.
Tennessee’s tremendous 13-3 season came to disappointing end with first playoff game ouster by Baltimore, 13-10 at home as three-point favorites. Kerry Collins returns for 15th season as quarterback and is the clear number one man in Tennessee. Vince Young is the primary backup and has a lot of work to do this August to restore dwindling NFL career.
The Titans will again feature a strong rushing attack with Chris Johnson and LenDale White, but the receiving core is still a weakness. Maybe free agent acquisition Nate Washington from Pittsburgh and top draft choice Kenny Britt can add some life.
Defensively, a gaping hole was left when Albert Haynesworth left for Washington via free agency. For most teams, this would be devastating loss; however with Jeff Fisher as coach, he usually finds a way to mask deficiencies. Fisher is 29-26 SU and 28-25-2 ATS in the preseason and 18-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3.
Except for 1966, there has been a Hall of Fame game every year since 1962 and neither Buffalo nor Tennessee has won here in two previous tries.
NFL: Seattle at Dallas (4:15 PM ET, FOX)
2008-11-27
After meeting in a memorable NFC wild-card playoff game in 2006, the Cowboys and Seahawks each captured a division title last season with a combined 23 victories. But neither has defended it well, and in Seattle’s case the playoffs haven’t even been on the radar from the opening kickoff of head coach Mike Holmgren’s final year at the helm. The teams will meet in FOX’s annual Thanksgiving day broadcast, with Dallas looking for a third straight double-digit pointspread holiday win and cover.
This season will mark the first since 2002 that the Seahawks don’t finish atop the NFC West and the first since ’01 they’ll be playoffs spectators. Seattle opened with a 24-point defeat in Buffalo and never really sniffed .500 all season. At 2-9 and 4-6-1 ATS, the Seahawks are likely to finish with their worst record since 1992 when they went 2-14 and set a league mark for offensive futility with 140 points. This year’s scoring unit isn’t that awful, scoring 18.8 points per game. Yet, when your only wins on the season are against NFC West foes St. Louis and San Francisco, it’s obvious the season has been a painful endeavor. The team formally known as “the Seabags” is 0-7 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game over the last two years.
Defensively, Seattle has been torched time and again and will have a hard time keeping the Cowboys out of the end zone. Opponents have outgained the Seahawks by a hefty 130 yards a game (151 YPG on the road), with the majority of the difference coming through the air. Tony Romo should be all smiles working against a defense that’s yielded nearly 3,000 yards passing with only five interceptions. Seattle picked off 20 passes in 2007. Seattle is 6-14-1 ATS as non-division away underdogs.
In his second game back from a broken finger, Romo threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns to lead a 35-22 victory over San Francisco that allowed Dallas to keep pace in the playoff race. The positive vibe emitting from the Cowboys locker room is that of Terrell Owens, who got is quarterback back, with seven catches for 213 yards to help Dallas. Owens' total was the second-most of his career, behind only the 283 yards he had in the 2000 game in which he caught an NFL-record 20 passes. Facing the league’s next to last pass defense should make T.O’s face light-up more than a bite of fresh pumpkin pie. The Boys are 8-1 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 since 2006.
The Dallas defense could have a feast of there own against the sinking Seattle offense. The Seattle offensive line could not move a dish of mashed potatoes, let alone the Cowboys defense. The term “jailbreak” could come up more often than the size of this year’s bird. Dallas is 19-6 ATS in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging 285 or fewer yards per game.
The Seahawks haven’t played on Thanksgiving since 1986 when they defeated Dallas 31-14. Including the playoff game a few years back, the Cowboys lead the all-time series 6-5. Soon to be defunct head coach mike Holmgren has seen his Seattle team post 10-21 ATS record vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt.
Thanksgiving Tasty Angle- Home teams that were favorites by six or more in prior game are 11-3 ATS on Thursday’s.
NFL: Dallas at Green Bay (8:15 PM ET, NBC)
2008-09-19
Two of the best teams in the NFC go head-to-head in the Sunday night feature. A few weeks ago, folks weren’t looking at this game with the same luster, but strong performances by Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has people forgetting about Brett Favre and remembering that Green Bay was a 13-3 club in ‘07 that has picked up where it left off. They’ll host a Dallas club that has rarely visited Lambeau Field. In fact, of the 11 games these teams have played since ’92, two have been in Green Bay, both easy Packers’ wins. Ten of those L11 games have gone OVER the total. HC Mike McCarthy’s team is 11-2 SU & 9-3-1 ATS in its L13 home games. Interestingly, this will be the Cowboys’ second look at Rodgers, who filled in for Favre in last year’s 37-27 Cowboys win in Dallas.
If there’s one team Green Bay’s new starting quarterback has experience against, Dallas is it. Prior to a couple of weeks ago, the only extensive action Aaron Rodgers had in the NFL came in relief of Brett Favre last season on the road against the Cowboys, who invade Lambeau Field on Sunday night after hosting Philadelphia on Monday night.
Should the Cowboys be concerned about Rodgers, who went 18 of 26 for 201 yards and one touchdown for a 104.8 rating in Green Bay’s 37-27 defeat a week after Thanksgiving? Yes, especially considering the fourth-year “rookie” has looked sharp as a tack in leading the Packers to victories over Minnesota and Detroit to open defense of their NFC North crown. He opened the 48-25 win over Detroit with 205 yards and three touchdowns in less than a quarter and a half.
Dallas sacked Rodgers three times in last year’s meeting, and if a defense led by DeMarcus Ware can put pressure on the former first-round pick from Cal it might force a critical mistake or two. The Vikings failed to sack him in Week 1, with Rodgers completing 18 of 24 passes for 178 yards and a score and adding a game-sealing touchdown plunge, and the Lions nabbed him only once in last week’s 48-25 defeat to Green Bay.
The most impressive thing about Rodgers so far has been his poise, both in and out of the huddle. Few outside of the Packers front office expected him to display leadership skills in September, nonetheless the first two weeks of opening month. Despite getting no help from running back Ryan Grant, who with a sore hamstring had just 20 yards on 15 carries, Rodgers didn’t panic or force throws into coverage. Instead he helped the ground attack by scrambling for 25 yards, giving him 60 on the season, in addition to throwing for 328 yards and three scores.
Grant could sit against the Cowboys, who allowed only 91 yards and two first downs rushing in a Week 1 win at Cleveland. In that case Brandon Jackson, who had a 19-yard touchdown run to seal the win over the Lions, would get the starting nod and rookie Kregg Lumpkin would try to provide a spark off the bench.
If you’re thinking Dallas might suffer a letdown after facing division rival Philadelphia, consider the ‘Boys are 8-2 since 2003 in games following a matchup with the Eagles.
PREDICTION: Green Bay 27, Dallas 20
NFL - Washington at New York Giants (8:15 PM ET – NBC)
2007-12-14
The Giants have secured a playoff spot and unless unusual circumstances arise, seem set to travel to Tampa Bay in the wildcard round. There are still three games to take care of before then however, starting Sunday at home vs. division rival Washington.
HC Tom Coughlin’s team has played better football on the road, going just 3-3 SU & ATS at home in ’07 and 4-7 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in the L11 overall. In fact, in the second half of the L2 seasons, they are 0-6 ATS at home. The Redskins are off a big win vs. Chicago that kept them in the wildcard hunt. Nothing but wins the rest of the way will make that happen though. Unfortunately, their L3 opponents are a combined 27-12. The favorite in the L15 games of this head-to-head series in New York is 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS.
What was once a promising season of hope in the nation’s capital is now another in a growing line of failures for the once-great Joe Gibbs. Young QB Jason Campbell continues to build numbers but has fallen prey to mistakes he avoided in the early weeks. The defense has the tools to work as a unit to fear, but the tragic loss of safety Sean Taylor could be just as damaging on the field as it has been off. A once-lethal rushing defense may now find flaws exposed as the defensive backfield, already in trouble, is without their top ball-hawking leader.
The Giants are manic depressive. Their offense comes and goes without warning as QB Eli Manning continues to draw criticism for his lack of progress, nagged by poor mistakes that oft result in turnover and an inability to lead this team to a higher stage. However, it may be fair to point a finger at the defense. Surrendering 41 points to a Minnesota team void of a passing attack perplexes, indicating the defensive backfield is susceptible if the rush to apply pressure on the QB fails.
Keys to the Game
It’s hard to call the Giants impressive as they march towards the postseason. A better word might be sufficient, an upgrade over last year. Manning’s horribly-inconsistent play is a real conundrum, leaving little room for error. Washington has had a few more days to grieve which could help the team refocus on the road in an NFC East encounter. Interestingly, teams like the Redskins that were favored at home on a Thursday and are now road dogs have posted 12-4 ATS record.
Trends
~ Washington is 3-14 ATS in their last division road game of the season.
~ The NY Giants are 0-6 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatFox Edge - Giants cover